*****
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| The Beast |
Ages ago,
when the world was still very young, the First Debate came and shook the world.
I am old now and my time has almost come, but I seem to recall that moment
nevertheless. I remember how shocked I was at the coming of The Beast, that
thick-headed and bullying Animal of Many Insults, that roared its way into the
very pits of palaver with its huge mouth
gaping hotly and hungrily.
Ah yes, I
remember it clearly. But where is the Avatar of Awesomeness now, I ask myself?
Where now is the Golem of Greatness?
It has been
so long, so long. I grow weary when I even think about it, the passing of all
this time. And truly, The Beast itself is no longer; the fire has died in its
eyes. It is alive, surely, but it has become a mere shade. Its shape is but the
hint of fog in the distance, and its whisper not enough to startle a mouse.
________
Hmm, no.
Trump has not faded away quite yet. But I do believe that Thursday's second
Republican debate showed why he will. And I also believe that it showed why the
GOP should nevertheless be quite cautious about getting its hopes up too high.
A while
back, I wrote that Trump's appeal to Republican voters did not seem to be that
he trumpeted all conservative things in an all-conservative way. Instead, I
said, he appealed to them because he was loud,
forceful and promised to actually act on his stated beliefs. Those
beliefs might not be the gospel truth according to some Republicans, but that
wasn't the issue: the issue was getting things done. And there was Trump,
proclaiming as strongly as he could that he was the man to do it. He was, he
himself stated, the non-politician to sweep all those weakling politicians out
of the temple.
Except, of
course, that his promises became hollower the more he repeated them.
You cannot,
for example, promise to deport 11 million aliens just like that. To do so would
require (a) lots and lotsa government money, and (b) lots and lotsa government
officials and (c) lots and lotsa of buses, too. Oh, and you'd also have to tag
the cretins in advance, so that you can catch them if they have the temerity to
make a run for it before getting thrown out of the country (you never know with
cretins, right?).
In short,
it would require the very sort of federal government (an almost
all-encompassing police state) that absolutely no Republican voter would ever
think of condoning. It's not just undoable; its very contemplation is absurd.
So, where
does that leave Trump's message? Well, where it ought to be. At first glance
it's delicious. It's nice and shiny and it's got da muscle. But when you hear
it for the second time, and then the third, you begin to realise you're
watching ice cream in the desert sun.
_________
So, no
Trump? He seemed up for a while; now he seems down.
Good news
for the GOP, surely?
Nope, not
really.
Just before
the second debate, CNN released a poll showing that about 32% of likely
Republican voters supported Trump. 19% supported Ben Carson. A rather measly 3%
were prepared to support Carly Fiorina.
Just after
the debate, CNN released another poll. Trump's support had dropped to 24%. Carson had gone down to 14%. But Fiorina
had escalated; she was up to 15%.
Now, what
does this show? In terms of individual politicians, not much. You might think
that the poll clearly confirms my own opinions, as stated above, but it doesn't
really. If anything, the poll confirms that some cracks are appearing in the
Trump monolith, but not more than that.
What it
does show, though, is this.
Before the
second debate, a total of 54% of likely voters supported a non-politician.
After the second debate, that figure had not really changed at all: it was
53%.
It has been
remarked upon by some how wildly the polls have swung recently. I would say the
exact opposite: look at what has remained the same, and there you should find a
fairly accurate measure of the voters' mood.
The voters
aren't all too committed to either Trump, Carson or Fiorina. They might like some of
them or even all of them, but in the end, they will happily hop from one to the
other. Their goal is not to support the individual; their goal is to oppose the
establishment. And they're doing it in spades.
Good news
form the GOP? No, not really.
________
And now the
night is falling. It has been so long, so long. Tell me, where is the boy to
bring me my tea? Where is he?
Ah, there
you are, Trumpsy. Yes, put it done there. A sugar, please, that's a good boy.
Tell me,
Trumpsy, have you heard the tale of The Beast? Let me tell you the story, for
it's a good tale.
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